Florida's Paradise Lost? Climate Disasters and Economic Pressures Reshape the Sunshine State

October 16, 2024



In this week's edition of Above the Line, we explore the challenges facing Florida's real estate market, from climate disasters to economic pressures. We'll also look at China's ongoing property crisis and its impact on companies, as well as the latest mortgage origination trends from major U.S. banks. These stories highlight the complex dynamics shaping real estate markets both domestically and globally.

Let's dive into these significant developments and their implications.

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They Came to Florida for a Slice of Paradise. Now They Are Packing Their Bags.
Realtor.com
Florida's appeal as a sunny escape is facing significant challenges. A series of destructive hurricanes, soaring home costs, skyrocketing insurance premiums, and high inflation rates are causing some residents to reconsider their decision to live in the Sunshine State. The state's population growth, once among the fastest in the U.S., is showing signs of slowing down, with some residents looking to move to states with lower living costs or no income tax.

China's property crisis claims more victims: companies
The Economist
China's property crisis is expanding beyond households to affect companies significantly. Foreclosures have been rising rapidly, with courts foreclosing on nearly 800,000 properties in 2023. However, unlike the U.S. housing crisis of 2007, the main holders of foreclosed properties in China are companies, not households. This trend points to a "balance-sheet recession" among Chinese firms, with debt levels so high that spending is reserved for paying down debts instead of making investments.

Bank of America Mortgage Origination Volume Declines 7% in Q3
HousingWire
Bank of America reported a 7% decline in mortgage production during the third quarter of 2024, despite a drop in interest rates that benefited competitors. The bank's first-lien mortgage volume fell to $5.3 billion, down from $5.7 billion in the previous quarter. This contrasts with positive performances from other major banks, with JPMorgan Chase maintaining its top position among depository mortgage producers at $11.4 billion in Q3 volume.

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